Motivation for Rational Decisions

 

1. (5pts) The following options pertain to the second day of class, in which we discussed how people and society make decisions. Which are correct?

A)      We suggested that our government often uses different criteria and methods in making decisions than individual citizens use

B)     Polls on supernatural phenomena (aliens, ghosts, etc.) indicate that the publicÕs attitude toward most topics largely matches the scientific evidence

C)     The scientific method, as used in our class, is intended primarily for addressing problems that fall under the domain of traditional science. For everyday problems that are not considered traditional science, we need an alternative method of making decisions.

D)     A major goal of this course, as mentioned in class, is that when you make decisions, you should eliminate as many non-scientific factors as possible in favor of scientific ones.

 

2. (5pts) The following options address the class responses on the day-1 survey and our discussion of them in lecture. Which are true?

A)      The histograms and our discussion suggested that an emotional factor affected the response to at least one of the statements.

B)     Maybe a fourth of the statements revealed Ôconsensus uncertaintyÕ in which responses were strongly peaked in the middle (no opinion) and progressively lower toward both extremes. That is, most individuals considered themselves to be uncertain.

C)     The statements in this survey avoided topics that would have been excluded in typical high school science classes.

D)     It was suggested that a personÕs response of uncertainty on a statement need NOT reflect ignorance.

 

The Scientific Method

3. (5pts) The use of evidence to evaluate a model is part of what we are calling the scientific method. Which of the following questions/problems could be addressed with evidence-based evaluation of models (or more generally, could be studied with the scientific method as we are using it in this class)?

A)      Is a psychic able to pick winning lottery numbers more often than by chance?

B)     Is your test performance higher when your only studying consists of cramming the day before the exam instead of when studying 1 hour per night for the 6 days before the exam?

C)     Do cell phones increase cancer rates?

D)     Is artificial tanning addictive?

E)     Is the reported crime rate higher on nights with a full moon than on nights with new (no) moons?

 

4, 5 (5pts each). Which elements of the scientific method are present? The goal in each is underlined. Base your answer on the information provided in the paragraph.

4. A private conservation agency receives a 5-year grant to increase the numbers of a threatened frog found at several bogs in Oregon. Each March for the next 5 years, the agency sends its best person to a different bog at which the frog is known to occur from previous records. The person clears vegetation and puts up fences around the bog to keep out large animals, thinking that more open water is needed for frog breeding and that frog eggs and babies (tadpoles) might be getting stepped on and killed by big animals that walk through the bog. The biologist works on one bog each summer and never samples frogs or tadpoles at any of the bogs, so does not know if frog numbers and breeding success have been affected.

A) Model             B) Observations (data)    C) Conclusion/evaluation              D) Revision

 

 

5. A 4-year old is intent on getting her dad to buy her candy when he takes her shopping. She quickly discovers that asking politely for candy does not often lead to success. She then tries fussing when dad refuses, and that works better but not always. She then tries screaming and crying, and she discovers that dad then almost always buys candy. She thus adopts a tiered approach of first asking, then fussing and finally screaming as a last resort, and she nearly always gets candy.

A) Model             B) Observations (data)    C) Conclusion/evaluation              D) Revision

 

 

 

6. (5 pts). Which institutions or processes were described as (usually) lacking at least observations/data as a deficiency in the scientific method? Some of these were covered only in the book.

 

(A)

religion

(B)

evolutionary biology

(C) astrology

(D) a criminal trial

(E)

car repair

(F) writing a news

article

 

 

 

7. (5 pts) Many government agencies are established to promote the social good in specific ways. Our government goes to great lengths to establish guidelines for how these agencies operate, how money is allocated to them, and their relationship to/overlap with other agencies. These governing rules even change occasionally, typically dictated by elected officials with political agendas. However our government does not have in place any procedure for gathering information or assessing whether an agency is achieving its specific objectives.

Evaluation is absent in this description. Why? (The underlined phrase is the goal. Assume the statement is true for the sake of this question.)

(A)      Revision is described, and the presence of revision means that evaluation has not occurred yet.

(B)     Models are absent. Since evaluation involves comparing a model with data, evaluation cannot exist without models.

(C)     The problem states that there is no procedure for gathering information; this statement indicates that evaluation is absent.

(D)     The problem states that there is no procedure for assessing whether an agency is achieving its objectives; this statement indicates that evaluation is absent.

 

 

 

8. (6 pts) Which of the following were given in lecture/book as illustrations of a widespread failure to adopt scientific evidence?

 

 

(A)

Lysenko suppressing Soviet Genetics

(B)

MullerÕs denial that X-rays cause genetic damage

(C)

Current religious opposition to evolution

(D)

physiciansÕ rejection of SemmelweisÕs views on hygeine

(E)

S. African govÕt stance on HIV treatment

(F)

Catholic church opposing Copernicus

 

 

 

 

 

Models

9. (6pts) General points about models. In the following options, the bold font gives a possible theme from class, and the statement following explains it. Fill in only those options for which both apply: (1) the bold statement is indeed one of the points made, and (2) the statement following it also correctly explains it or correctly addresses it.

A)      The usefulness of X as a model of Y depends on the goal. In practice, if a model is found to be inadequate for one goal, we tend to look for another goal that suits it better. Science is a method of finding progressively better goals.

B)     Pieces and parts as models of the whole. Because all models are false, we make more progress by dissecting models into their component parts (ÔpiecesÕ) and working with the pieces instead of the whole.

C)     One-to-many, many-to-one. Scientific progress typically involves starting with a single model, expanding to many models, then ultimately converging back to a single model.

D)     Types of models. We suggested that physical models (as one class of model) have a fundamentally different role in the scientific method than abstract models. Thus, use of the scientific method with physical models is conceptually different than use of the scientific method with abstract models.

 

10. (6pts) More about models. Which of the following are true?

A)      In illustrating history as a model of the past, the book used an example of Billy the Kid and Hico, TX.

B)      Limitations. Since all models have limitations but some limitations are more serious than others, we search for goals that minimize the limitations.

C)     for any given goal, there are usually many different models

D)     Convenient models usually lack uniformity

E)      if a model is useful for two different goals, then if it is accurate for one of the goals it is also accurate for the other goal

F)      Two models for the same goal may have different strengths and limitations. Together, they may complement each other, so the strengths of one overcome the limitations of another. This principle is evident among the different models used in condom testing (e.g., airburst test and volunteer studies).

 

11 (4pts). Which of the following models from class are examples of physical models?

 

(A)     The model of infectious disease epidemic growth using the basic reproductive number (R0)

(B)    An airburst test of a condom

(C)    The scale model of the solar system

(D)    The slogans transferred from English to other languages

 

 

12. (5 pts) Which of the following are potentially useful models of an appliance with the goal of repairing it if it breaks? Think about how you would actually go about getting it repaired either yourself or by someone else.

(A) The instruction manual

(B) Another functional appliance of the same type

(C) A (different) broken appliance of the same type

(D) Pictures of the inside and outside of the appliance

(E) Its serial number and model number

 

 

 

13. (5 pts) Each of the following options compares two models for a particular goal. Bubble options in which the first model (in bold) is more convenient than the second model (underlined) for the goal.

(A)      Volunteers instead of trained sex technicians in tests of condom integrity during sex.

(B)      Mice instead of humans in tests of whether chemicals cause cancer

(C)     Humans available from accidental exposures to a known toxin instead of humans deliberately exposed to the toxin in testing the effect in humans

(D)     In studying the effect of a pesticide on cancer using rats, long term studies versus short term studies.

(E)      In clinical trials evaluating the effects of a new drug, trials involving thousands of patients versus trials involving tens of patients.

 

 

Testing Condoms (Models)

14. (4 pts). For which goals are the limitations of the airburst test so serious that we would not consider the test useful?

A)      do viruses and bacteria pass through an intact condom?

B)     do condoms break during sex?

C)     do condoms reduce sensitivity?

D)     is latex irritating or abrasive to either partner?

 

 

15. (5pts) Which of the following are true about the condom lectures and book chapter?

A)      The most serious limitation of the airburst test was considered to be its accuracy (instead of uniformity or convenience).

B)     Mechanical tests were considered strong in uniformity and convenience.

C)     The airburst test was used in class to show that baby oil causes deterioration of a condom.

D)     The airburst test is a model of sex between people.

E)     The airburst test is now the only test of condoms used by the U.S. government.

 

 

16. (5pts) Class and the book noted some studies in which volunteers were used to test condom effectiveness in blocking HIV transmission. Which of the following apply?

A)      The goals motivating the volunteer study do not overlap the goals motivating the airburst test of condom integrity because the models are so different.

B)      The study used single, HIV- men and observed their rate of conversion to HIV+. A limitation of this study is therefore that it may not apply to couples, because single men may have different exposures than those in a relationship.

C)     Volunteer studies were said to be lacking in uniformity and (somewhat) in convenience.

D)     Volunteer tests of HIV transmission failed to suggest any benefit of condoms (for blocking HIV)

 

 

 

 

 

Models in DWI testing

 

17. (4 pts) General points about models in DWI testing

A)      Texas law allows driver impairment to be assessed by at least two different types of tests (models)

B)     One legally allowed model of driver impairment involves no observation of the driverÕs physical abilities such as coordination and reaction time

C)     A driver need only satisfy one model of impairment to be considered legally impaired.

D)     One legal model of impairment is a blood alcohol concentration (BAC) of 0.08% or higher. A person over 21 years old whose BAC reading is 0.04% cannot be prosecuted without further evidence of impairment.

 

 

18. (6pts) Which of the following limitations apply to the SFST (standardized field sobriety test) as a model of driving impairment? The statement must both be true and identify a limitation.

A)      The SFST is applied without baseline data for each person, so performance on a road is not adjusted for performance when they are known to be sober.

B)      The SFST addresses only physical faculties such as coordination and balance

C)     The SFST is affected by many factors not related to coordination, such as a personÕs build, their shoes, etc.

D)     The fact that officers administer the SFST the same way each time renders it a convenient model (versus accurate or uniform).

E)      The horizontal gaze nystagmus (HGN) test is administered to test mental faculties, whereas the other two tests (walk and turn, one leg stand) are administered to assess just physical faculties (coordination).

F)      For the goal of assessing whether a driver is actually impaired (as opposed to legally impaired), the SFST is a more accurate model of performance than is the BAC.

 

Infectious Disease

 

19. (4pts) The basic reproductive number (R0) is a model of the spread of an infectious agent in which ways?

A)       It is an approximate Òbirth rateÓ of the disease.

B)       The model can be applied to many different diseases (though not all).

C)      Estimates of R0 of the same disease can vary as much as two-fold depending on time of year and location and other factors.

D)      Values for some common diseases can be high (e.g., 5 or more).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

20. (5pts) The epidemiological model formula presented in class and in the book (involving the number of infecteds, susceptibles, transmission rate, etc) is both a useful and false model. Which of the following options is/are correct?

A)       The model informs us how population infection rates are impacted by various interventions

B)       The model indicates the level of vaccine coverage that must be achieved to eradicate a disease.

C)      The model applies to sexually transmitted diseases

D)      The model accounts for differences in where people live within the population.

E)       The model neglects whether infected individuals recover from the disease.

 

 

21. (3 pts) Key code. Fill in AB on your scantron to indicate which version of the test you have. Correctly bubble in your EID and name, and put your name on this form.