1. (4 pts) Key code, ID #, and name. Fill in (A B) to indicate your key for this version of the exam. Be sure your name and ID number are correctly bubbled in on the scantron and that you have signed this exam copy. See the page displayed on the big screen for details of where your ID number goes.
Intrinsic Difficulties
2. (5 pts) Which of the following are true? MTF
A) The coin flip demo during the intrinsic difficulties lecture was used to illustrate how rare events could be generated merely through sampling error.
B) The flash powder demonstration illustrated that a fundamentally different outcome could come from the combination of two things than from either alone; this was a type of interaction or complexity.
C) ‘Intrinsic difficulties’ refers to types of problems for which the scientific method cannot ultimately obtain answers, hence we need to find some other way of addressing those problems.
D) The theme given that unites intrinsic difficulties is that they all stem from problems in evaluation (as opposed to data, models, or revision).
E) We noted that intrinsic difficulties are expected to become less important in the future, as societies develop a better understanding of the scientific method.
3-7. (3pts each) In the following problem descriptions, which intrinsic difficulties are indicated? Do not infer more than is described. The underlined part of the question illustrates the problem that needs to be addressed by your answer. Use the following options for your answers: (one per question)
|
(A) Time lags |
(B) Rare events |
(C) Humans make difficult subjects |
(D) Interactions/ complexity |
(E) None |
3. The drug DES was used in the 1940s into the 1970s to suppress miscarriage. It was discovered that the drug caused elevated cancer rates. Which intrinsic difficulty explains why the drug was used for 30+ years before it was withdrawn? (A) (B) (C) (D) (E) one only
4. The FDA has recently approved several drugs that were subsequently withdrawn because they created problems for some patients (e.g., Baycol and Vioxx). The clinical trials had missed those problems because they arose in 1 of every 10,000 patients. Clinical trials only use up to 3,000 patients. Which difficulty explains why the drug passed clinical trials yet was eventually found to cause problems? (A) (B) (C) (D) (E) one only
5. The FAA, which oversees airline safety, has recently instituted a model of accidents (crashes) that uses data on near misses. Near misses are perhaps a poor model of crashes, but they are much more frequent than actual crashes. Airline safety has gotten to the point that there are not enough crashes to obtain adequate data on their causes. What difficulty explains why the FAA has resorted to this alternative model of crashes? (A) (B) (C) (D) (E) one only
6. Superconductors are materials (metals) that have almost no resistance to electricity. Superconducting materials were long sought but only created maybe two decades ago. They consist of combinations of odd metals, and none of the metals alone have superconducting materials so there was no way to predict how to make them. What difficulty underlies the long time it took to discover how to make superconductors? (A) (B) (C) (D) (E) one only (A = time lags; B = rare; C = humans; D = interactions; E = none)
7. Which difficulty is illustrated by the unwillingness of parents to accept the results from FC experiments (in the second part of the FC video)? (A) (B) (C) (D) (E) one only
8. (4 pts) Clinical trials are required for FDA approval of new drugs and some food products. Which points about clinical trials are true? MTF
A) There are 3 different levels (phases) that must be undertaken before approval (I, II, III).
B) The different phases all involve approximately the same numbers of patients.
C) In terms of safety to the participants, Phase I is safest.
D) The typical phase III involves a randomized, double-blind procedure. If you participate in a phase III trial, you have only a 50% chance of being assigned the drug being tested.
Biological Determinism (BD, for short)
9. (4pts) Which of the following are true, as covered in class? MTF
A) Alternative ways of describing the question of biological determinism is “nature vs. nurture” or “is it in our genes?”
B) As we discussed, a modern controversy over the question of BD concerns genetically modified organisms and whether their genomes are likely to be harmful to society.
C) BD is relevant to IQ and race, gender roles in society, eugenics, and crime.
D) The castration of convicted rapists in exchange for their freedom, which was mentioned in class, assumes that their raping behavior is biologically determined, and thus is largely genetic.
10. (4pts) Which of the following are true, as covered in class? MTF
A) State laws in the U.S. during the 1900s allowed the castration of individuals judged to be feebleminded.
B) The castration of individuals deemed to be ‘inferior’ as a way of preventing them from having children, was motivated by the presumption that their ‘inferiority’ had a genetic basis.
C) The German Nazi regime of the 1930s and 1940s incorporated an extreme form of biological determinism, castrating or killing many of its citizens in attempting to create a master race.
D) Although parents affect their children’s behaviors through non-genetic means, such as by education and by setting examples, modern genetics methods have resolved this problem so that inheritance of human behaviors can be assessed confidently from parent-offspring resemblance.
11. (5pts) Sexual preference in humans: which are true? MTF
A) Studies of inheritance, based on comparisons of identical twins to full sibs, suggest the lack of a genetic/inherited basis to sexual preference.
B) The relevance of biological determinism to sexual preference is whether sexual preference is a choice (and possibly learned) or is something that a person is born with. In the past, at least, a popular public belief has been that homosexual preference was learned.
C) Themes for this topic included ‘humans make difficult subjects’ and ‘correlations.’
D) An anatomical difference between heterosexual and gay men has been observed in some studies on the finger length ratio (index to 4th finger). Gay men have finger length ratios more similar to those of women than those of heterosexual men.
E) A correlation has been observed between sexual preference of a man and the number of older brothers he has, each older brother increasing the chance that he is gay.
F) Sexual preference in humans is also known as with sexual identity.
12 (5pts) LeVay’s study on the brain of gay and heterosexual men: which are true? MTF
A) This study demonstrated a correlation but not causation.
B) LeVay looked for a difference in the size of a brain region between gay men and heterosexual men; this region contained several ‘nuclei,’ each nucleus was about the size of a cherry
C) LeVay observed a size difference in one brain nucleus that was associated with sexual preference in men. Heterosexual men had a larger nucleus than gay men, whereas the size in gay men was similar to that of women.
D) Many of the brains used in the study were from AIDS deaths. It was not possible to rule out the nucleus size difference between gay and heterosexual men as being due to AIDS.
E) In the brain shown in class, the region studied by LeVay (known as the anterior hypothalamus) was on the outside front of the brain.
13 (4pts) Each of the following options contrasts two properties of a vaccine, disease, or population. Mark those in which the first property (italicized) is more likely to result in a ToC conflict than the second property. MTF
A) herd immunity exists for the disease/ herd immunity is absent
B) individuals get vaccinated for selfish reasons/ individuals avoid vaccination for selfish reasons
C) the infectious agent spreads from person to person/ the agent does not spread person-person
D) the vaccine prevents the individual from getting infected/ the vaccine does not prevent an individual from getting infected but does prevent transmission by the infected individual
14 (6pts) Which of the following describes Toc conflict or outcome? Recall that ToC is not limited to humans. MTF
A) A human body is a population of about 1013 cells. Through regulated growth, all cell types are maintained at requisite levels and contribute to the survival of their own lineages as well as to the survival of all other cell types (the body). A cancer is a population of cells that grows abnormally fast. When a cancer lineage first arises, it is rare. But its numbers increase disproportionately because of their high growth rates. By growing fast, cancer cells ‘selfishly’ increase in the body. If untreated, their numbers eventually become so high that the body ceases to function, and all cell types die.
B) Six farmers form a cooperative to manage their separate lands. During a long drought, it becomes necessary to irrigate. Collectively, they make a decision to pump water from the aquifer faster than it is replenished, and eventually, it runs dry. All six farmers suffer financially in future years because of the dry aquifer.
C) 20 students form a common bank account, because they anticipate higher interest rates with a collective account than with individual accounts, presuming that they will each maintain reasonable balances. Each student puts in the same amount of money up front. There are limits on each account so that each student can withdraw no more money than each put in, so the account is protected from students taking out the money of others. The interest is shared equally, however, regardless of the individual account values. In the long term, everyone keeps most of their money in separate accounts because each gets all the interest due them, and the balance is low in the joint account that no interest is generated.
D) A rancher owns 6 different properties, all adjacent (maintained as separate properties for tax purposes). There is a common aquifer spanning the 6 properties. 4 properties are used for grazing cattle, 2 for crops. The rancher’s decision to irrigate the crops eventually causes the aquifer to dry up, at which point it is not only no longer feasible to grow crops on the two properties, but it is also no longer possible to keep cattle on the other 4.
15. (6 pts) Which of the following are true about conflict in general, not just “tragedy of the common.?” Some options require distinguishing conflict from bias. MTF
A) All types of conflict we considered are different versions of “tragedy of the common” conflicts.
B) Conflict between the defense and prosecution over evidence in a criminal trial leads to both sides treating evidence, especially evidence that involves uncertainty, differently than is scientifically proper.
C) The effect of Lysenko on Soviet genetics was given as an example of conflict due to political factors dominating scientific ones.
D) It was suggested that the social acceptance of science in the U.S. has advanced to the point that political factors no longer subvert science.
E) Bias usually appears in the evaluation stage of a study. Conflict usually appears in the design.
F) Conflict refers to different people/institutions having different goals. Bias refers to a way of distorting a study or its conclusions away from “truth.”
16 (4pts) Which are true of the second FC video and the related discussion in class? MTF
A) Several instances were shown in which individuals refused to doubt the validity of FC. For those FC-accepting individuals interviewed (some parents, and the administrator Doug Bicklen) it was apparent from the video that factors other than seeking the truth could be affecting their views.
B) Bicklen raised objections to the tests of FC on the grounds that the testing environment was intimidating. The controls used in the tests of FC supported his concern.
C) One set of parents was shown who accepted the evidence that FC was bogus. They had a strong incentive to doubt its validity, because FC had been used against them.
D) According to the video, FC had been widely accepted before it had been tested.
E) Syracuse University still maintains an institute for Facilitated Communication.
17 (4pts) Courts and conflict/bias (DNA) MTF
A) There is a built-in conflict between the defense and prosecution. Labs providing the analyses are largely free of conflict with either defense or prosecution.
B) There are many legal procedures that have been used to thwart legitimate scientific analysis of evidence in the courts. These include the use of known sympathetic experts and the prosecution’s failure to include testing procedures that might benefit the suspect.
C) The prosecution is governed by strict rules of conduct with respect to its interactions with the various parties in a trial. Thus, for example, the prosecution would never harass defense witnesses outside of court.
D) The legal system deals with uncertainty in a fundamentally different way than does ‘science.’ In science, uncertainty is an acceptable conclusion. In a trial, a decision about guilt must usually be made, which is not compatible with uncertainty. Thus uncertainty is inflated by the defense to argue in favor of acquittal but is deemphasized by the prosecution.
18 (6pts) Bias can often be recognized in the form of non-scientific arguments. Which in the following list were given as examples of non-scientific arguments indicative of bias? Do not include options that describe how bias is created. MTF
A) appeal to authority
B) control the null model
C) throw out unwanted results
D) character assassination of opposition
E) identify trivial flaws in an opponent’s model
F) identify major flaws in an opponent’s model
G) defend an unfalsifiable model
H) defend a falsifiable model
I) assay for a narrow spectrum of unlikely results
J) assay for a broad spectrum of results
19-23 (3pts each) Some other non-scientific arguments (other than those in the preceding question) are given in A-E below. Which of those apply to the following questions? One answer only.
|
(A) use anecdotes and post hoc observations |
(B) Either-or arguments |
(C) Build causation from correlation |
(D) Require refutation of all alternatives |
(E) Refusal to admit error |
19. Doug Bicklen’s claim that it does not matter how many failed attempts there are when trying to show whether FC works. (A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (one only)
20. A student claims that a test debunking horoscope accuracy has not convinced him that there is “nothing to” horoscopes, and thus that he still believes in them. (A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (one only)
21. A parent arguing that FC works for them, because they can recall one instance when the typing seemed to make sense. (A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (one only)
22. Creationists argue that the inability of the theory of evolution to explain some particular observation means that the theory of special creation must therefore be correct. (A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (one only)
23. A lawyer argues that his/her client’s suicide attempt was caused by the company’s antidepressant, because there is a clear association of suicides with antidepressants. (A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (one only)
24-32. (2 pts each) Bias can be introduced at several levels in a study, as given below. Which of those apply to the following questions? One only for each question
|
(A) Before the design and conduct |
(B) In the design and conduct |
(C) In evaluation and presentation |
(D) None |
24. Non-random assignments (A) (B) (C) (D)
25. Small samples to avoid unwanted, rare outcomes (A) (B) (C) (D)
26. Control the null model (A) (B) (C) (D)
27. Statistical analysis (A) (B) (C) (D)
28. Assay for a narrow spectrum of unlikely results (A) (B) (C) (D)
The following cases refer to abuses of the drug industry, as in the book:
29. Tell only part of the story (A) (B) (C) (D)
30. Comparisons confounded by dose differences (A) (B) (C) (D)
31. Testing the wrong age group (A) (B) (C) (D)
32. Using ghostwriters to put a good spin on the study (A) (B) (C) (D)