1
. (6 pts) The following statements pertain to the first-day survey and
the discussion of it in the following lectures. Which statements are true? (multiple True/False = MTF)
(A) The responses indicated that many in our class (e.g.,
20% or more) believe/accept concepts for which there is no scientific evidence.
(B) When surveyed, a large fraction of the U.S. public
(e.g., 30% or more) claim to believe concepts for which there is no scientific
evidence.
(C) We suggested that a response indicating uncertainty
(in the middle) is evidence that the class is poorly informed about the
subject.
(D) Class responses exhibited a tendency to accept
ÒconspiracyÓ theories. That is,
more of the class was willing to accept an idea when couched as a conspiracy
than to accept the idea when presented outside a conspiracy context. This was illustrated with one example.
(E) We discussed what might be called a Òdecision rule,Ó
which consists of the different factors that go into a personÕs acceptance of a
statement. In class, we suggested
that the most important factor, the factor that people tend to rely most
heavily on, is a personÕs direct knowledge of the evidence.
Scientific Method
2).
(5 pts) The figure below shows the
steps of the scientific method, labeled (i)-(viii). Which of the following options are true? You are assumed to know the identity of
these steps for this question. In two cases, you are asked to relate the
elements of this figure to demonstrations done in class. (MTF)
(A) One of the main themes this figure is used to
illustrate is that the scientific method is continual, with no stopping point.
(B) If data were obtained to evaluate a model, the evaluation
would be step (iv)
(C) For the in-class demonstration using the lamp, the
behavior of the lamp in response to the lighter is an example of (v).
(D) For the in-class demonstration using the ÒWheel of
FortuneÓ game, your guesses at letters in the blanks were examples of (i).
3. (4 pts.) Exam Key Code: For 2 points, fill in (AB) on question
3 to indicate your exam code.
Another 2 points is for getting your box number and name bubbled in
correctly.
4. (5 pts) For many people, a life ambition is to win the
Lotto. The Lotto is a legal form
of gambling in many states in which people attempt to predict (or guess) a set
of numbers chosen randomly. The
odds of an exact match are rare, so the reward for winning is high. The Millionaire Company has just developed a strategy for choosing numbers
that it claims have a better-than random chance of winning the Lotto. A large number of people have used this
strategy in recent drawings of the Lotto, and their choices along with the
winning numbers have been sent to a statistical consultant to determine if the
strategy does indeed perform as advertised, but the statistical consultant has
not yet done the analysis.
Which elements
of the scientific method are present for use of this method to win the
Lotto? MTF
|
(A)
Goal |
(B)
Model |
(C)
Data |
(D)
Evaluation |
(E)
Revision |
(F)
None |
3. (6 pts) Therapeutic Touch (TT) is a
controversial nursing practice that has been taught at UT and elsewhere. Like
other nursing practices, TT purports to improve patient healing and overall
well-being. People are trained in TT methods by taking classes that provide the
basic concepts, and this training enables them to use TT on their own patients.
Practitioners steadfastly refuse to subject their methods to rigorous tests
that would show whether patients are actually healed faster by TT than without
TT, so we don't know if TT has any validity.
5. (5 pts) Astrologists claim to be able to predict your future
and give insights to your being, and they have well-defined rules to use in
reaching those forecasts, based on your birthday and birth hour. However, there are no attempts to test
the accuracy of those predictions Ð no formal observations, no comparisons of
observations to predictions, and no consequent changes in the rules used.
Data
is absent in this description. Why? MTF
(A) Evaluation is absent, and there can be no data without evaluation.
(B) Models are absent. Without models, you cannot gather data to test the models.
(C) The problem states that there are no attempts to test
the accuracy of the predictions; this statement directly indicates that data is
absent.
(D) The problem states that there are no formal
observations, which means that data are not present.
6. (5 pts) The
State of Texas developed an emergency operations management team used in
preparing for the recent hurricane Rita.
This body was established not only to reduce casualties and manage
evacuations for hurricanes, but also to contain and minimize damage from other
types of potential disasters, including terrorist attacks. They consulted with personnel who have
experience in prior disasters to develop response plans for different types of
emergencies. They also used
computer simulations and mock exercises/drills (one on the UT campus) to assess
the efficacy of their plans, and the performance in these drills was measured
and used to fine-tune their plans.
Hurricane Rita was the first large-scale emergency that this team has
faced, and the team has begun gathering Òinformation about the evacuation
process and other emergency operationsÓ during Rita to assess performance.
Which of the
following points about the scientific method are true, based on the above description?
The underlined phrase consists of the goal for this problem. (MTF)
(A) The response plans constitute models of how actual
operations will go.
(B) The mock exercises/drills represent models of how
actual operations will go.
(C) The only description of data above is in the
quoted phrase (Òinformation about...Ó).
(D) Revision is absent from the above description, because
Rita was the first actual emergency, and the problem does not state that any
modifications to plans have been made in response to Rita.
7 - 11 (7.5 pts total,
1.5pts each). In the class book,
the process of writing a news article was said to resemble the scientific
method. Which steps from that example illustrate each of the five elements of
the scientific method?
Use
these 5 answers as your list (A)
the current draft of the document
of
choices in 7-11 below: (B)
reactions of you and others to the draft
(C)
new drafts
(D)
whether the reactions to the draft meets your expectations
(E)
writing a stimulating article
7. Goal: (A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (one
answer only)
8. Model: (A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (one
answer only)
9. Data:
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (one
answer only)
10. Evaluation: (A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (one
answer only)
11. Revision: (A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (one
answer only)
12.
(5 pts) Which of the following
statements apply to our teachings of the scientific method and to violations of
the scientific method? (MTF)
A) Models and evaluation must be closely tied to goals to
be useful in the scientific method.
B) Simple endeavors involving Òtrial and errorÓ
illustrate the scientific method
C) Our understanding of the health effects of tobacco
smoke was used to illustrate the final step of the scientific method Ð when we
have learned enough that we stop additional testing.
D) Several social institutions designed to help us
(church, government agencies) are lacking one or more elements of the
scientific method.
Models
13. (5 pts) Demonstrations. Lecture used some demonstrations
and topics to illustrate the scientific method and others to illustrate
models. Indicate which of the
following demos or topics were used to illustrate (some aspects of) models. If a demo or topic was not used in
class, or if it was used to illustrate the scientific method, do not fill it
in. MTF
|
(A) Slogans |
(B) Bacteria |
(C) ÒSolar systemÓ |
(D) Phone book and brochure
pictures |
(E) Baby oil (in part of
one demo) |
14. (5 pts) A theme
is that all models are false. Which of the following are consequences
of or fixes for this principle?
MTF
(A) Many models
used at one time are ultimately replaced by more useful models.
(B)
Because all of our models have flaws, we rarely make progress.
(C) For any given goal, we often use a patchwork of
different models, with one model overcoming the limitations of another.
(D) If a model has major limitations, we suggested that
this problem should be fixed by choosing a more explicit goal.
15.
(5 pts) General points about
models. Which of the following are
true? MTF
- ACU
(accuracy, convenience, uniformity) are characteristics of a model that
make it useful. No one
characteristic is necessarily valued above the others.
- Although
the usefulness of a model depends on the goal, the limitations do not
depend on the goal.
- A
model can be both accurate and convenient, because there is nothing that
keeps a model from satisfying several of the 3 ACU criteria.
- Our statement that no
model exactly matches what it
represents is merely a (false) generalization; there are cases in which
the model exactly matches its template, as in a Xerox copy or two
printings of the same book.
16. (6 pts) Each of the following options compares two models for
a particular goal. Bubble options
in which the first model (in
bold) is more accurate than the second model (underlined) for the
goal. MTF
(A) The airburst test instead of Marioposa CSI in tests of condom integrity during
sex.
(B) Yeast
instead of mice in tests of whether chemicals inhibit beer cultures
(which uses yeast)
(C) Humans accidentally exposed to dioxin instead of guinea pigs deliberately exposed to
dioxin in testing the toxicity of dioxin for humans
(D) High doses
of a pesticide versus low doses of it fed to rats for testing whether
traces of the pesticide in food cause cancer.
(E) Toxicity
measures (LD50) versus assays of tumor formation in rats as a
measure of a chemicalÕs ability to cause cancer in rats.
17. (5 pts) Mark all statements that specifically illustrate the
concept that there can be more than one model of any particular object or idea
(MTF).
A) The FBI keeps records on many people. These records may include fingerprints,
DNA profiles, aliases, addresses, and lists of associates and activities.
B) Our government extrapolates from rodents to estimate a
chemicalÕs risk to humans, in part because the number of people exposed to the
chemical is too few to rely on just human data.
C) The ÒremÓ and ÒradÓ as measures of radiation.
D) Companies use magazine pictures, radio and TV ads and
floor models to entice people to buy a product.
Condom testing
18. (5pts) Which of the following were considered goals for
condom use and design?
(A) Avoid STD transmission
(B) Avoid pregnancy
(C) Maintain sensation
(D) An absence of pores
(E) Thin, flexible, and durable
19. (5pts). What
are limitations of the airburst test as a model of sex to predict whether a
condom will stay intact during sex? (pay attention to the goal) MTF
A)
The airburst test does
not generate the friction and wear that condoms typically experience during sex
B)
The airburst test does
not pick up small holes that would allow the passage of a microbe that causes
an STD.
C)
The airburst test is not
conducted at body temperature and moisture that match sex.
D)
The airburst test cannot
be applied to individual condoms that are later sold, because it is a
destructive test.
20.
(3pts) Mechanical tests of condom
integrity were considered superior to tests using humans in which
property/properties, if any? MTF
|
|
(A) Accuracy |
(B) Convenience |
(C) Uniformity |
Extrapolating Health Risks
21. (6pts) (MTF)
Which
of the following illustrate extrapolation across doses? Some examples were not covered in the
book or class, and you need to infer the answer from the option for those. If the example was covered, then you
should only mark it if the statement is true and it illustrates dose
extrapolation.
A) One major limitation of the rodent test of carcinogens
as model of cancer in humans is that it involves dose extrapolation (a
carcinogen is something that increases cancer rates).
B) New statistical methods allow us to extrapolate from
the high exposures smokers receive to low exposures that non-smokers receive. The harmful effects of second-hand
smoke are based primarily on these extrapolations.
C) As little as 20 years ago, advice to pregnant women
was that 1-2 alcoholic drinks per day was acceptable, even though higher levels
of consumption were known to be harmful to the fetus. This advice assumed an extrapolation from high doses.
D) At a party, Joe has one alcoholic drink and feels
good. He decides to have another
drink to feel even better.
22. (6pts) Which points about plants and carcinogens were noted (from the Powerpoint presentation)? MTF
(A) Many of the plant materials we eat contain substances
that test as carcinogens.
(B) A correlation between diet and cancer has been found
in humans. Higher cancer rates are
associated with food plants known to contain carcinogens.
(C) Roasted coffee tests high in carcinogens. Yet there is no evidence of higher
cancer rates in coffee drinkers.
(D) Synthetic compounds (e.g., pesticides, herbicides, and
other man-made chemicals) test positive for cancer at more than twice the level
of natural compounds.
(E) Several herbal remedies have been tested for health
effects; the results usually fail to observe a benefit.
(F) The process of cooking food has been shown conclusively
to create harmful substances in some instances.
Radiation
23.
(5pts) The difficulties in estimating
harmful effects of excess ionizing radiation include (MTF):
A)
We have few people
exposed to the low doses that are of greatest interest to us
B)
There is not an accepted
way of combining the effects of different types of radiation for measuring its
health effects.
C)
The effects of moderate
excess doses (e.g., 3 times the annual average) are slight, which makes it
difficult to estimate the effects of lower doses
D)
In cases of large
exposures, time lags occur between radiation exposure and cancer appearance, so
that people exposed may die before they have time to develop a cancer from the
radiation
24. (5 points). Which are true? MTF
(A) Compared to adults, the fetal brain is particularly
susceptible to radiation and is subject to mental retardation when exposed to
elevated levels.
(B) The models underlying our understanding of the cancer
risk caused by radiation include different types of cancer, different types of
radiation, and different doses.
(C) The types of cancer most commonly studied in
conjunction with radiation have been lung, and colon cancer because of their
relatively short time-lag between radiation exposure and appearance of the
cancer (5 years) compared to the longer lag of leukemia.
(D) Mice have been used as a model of humans to test which
of the abstract models (linear, threshold, ...) best fits the relationship
between cancer and radiation because this relationship appears to be
insensitive to differences between mice and humans.