11 to 20. In each of the following indicate which parts of the scientific method are present. Mark only those parts of the scientific method that are explicit in the problem description.
Parts of the Scientific Method
11. A wildlife biologist is put in charge of designing a strategy to maintain a population of mountain lions in West Texas. The first action taken by this biologist is to determine whether population size is increasing or decreasing, while allowing current management practices to continue. By tagging animals and monitoring the population over 10 years, the biologist discovers that the population is declining at 3% per year.
Answer: The first four features of the scientific method are present. The goal is to develop a conservation strategy. The initial model merely the current management policy regarding the animals and lands over which they roam. The data are the observations on changes in population size over the 10-year period, and the evaluation is that the current model is failing because the numbers are decreasing. No revision is indicated.
12. In attempting to lower the incidence of sexually-transmitted diseases on campus, the Student Health Service begins issuing condoms during class hours in all major buildings. Over the following year, the incidence of sexually-transmitted diseases increases in the student body, but the practice of issuing condoms is not changed.
Answer: The first four features of the scientific method are present. The goal is clear: lower the frequency of sexually-transmitted diseases among students. The model is to make condoms more accessible to students. The data are the observations on incidence of the diseases. But the evaluation of the policy is negative, because the frequency of diseases increased rather than decreased. Revision is not undertaken, because the policy is not changed.
13. The jury in a criminal trial must determine whether Mr. Smith-Jones is guilty of manslaughter or not. The prosecution presents testimony and physical evidence that support the idea that Mr. Smith-Jones is guilty. Conversely, the defense presents evidence that casts doubt on his guilt. In their deliberations, the jury determines how much weight should be given to the various pieces of evidence presented in court. The jury returns a guilty verdict. Several weeks later, the local newspaper publishes an interview with an eyewitness to the crime who did not testify at the trial. This eyewitness states that Mr. Smith-Jones was not at the scene of the crime. However, the District Attorney refuses to grant Mr. Smith-Jones a new trial.
14. The jury in a criminal trial must determine whether the suspect, Mr. Smith-Jones is guilty of manslaughter or not. The prosecution presents testimony and physical evidence that support the idea that Mr. Smith-Jones is guilty. Conversely, the defense presents evidence that casts doubt on his guilt. In their deliberations, the jury determines how much weight should be given to the various pieces of evidence presented in court. After lengthy deliberations, the jury is hung, and the judge declares a mistrial (8 voted to convict, and 4 voted to not convict). After talking to jury members to determine why they were reluctant to return a conviction, the prosecutor decides that Mr. Smith-Jones should be prosecuted for drunk driving, rather than manslaughter. The prosecutor files drunk driving charges against Mr. Smith-Jones, and obtains a conviction after a second trial.
15. The Austin City Council wants to further reduce the amount of second-hand smoke that citizens are exposed to in public places. Inspired by anti-smoking legislation in Santa Barbara, the Mayor asks the City Council to consider enacting laws prohibiting smoking in all restaurants and bars in Austin. Several public hearings are held, and the 109 people who show up are given 5 min. each to give their opinion on the proposed anti-smoking legislation.
16. You want to find out what kind of health you are currently in. Thus when you move to a new town, you have your old doctor send your new doctor your medical records. Your new doctor also gives you your annual physical exam. During the exam, he pokes, pinches, looks and listens to you, takes a sample of blood for analysis by a laboratory, and orders a chest x-ray. The laboratory sends him the raw data from the laboratory tests, and the chest x-ray is also sent to him.
17. You want your credit report to be accurate, so that you can obtain a loan for an automobile. After being turned down for a car loan by Big Red Used Autos, you request a copy of your credit report from Double Dollar Credit Reporting Agency. You are surprised to find an error in it (the credit report says that your child support is in arrears, but you don't have any children). You write a letter to Double Dollar explaining why you believe your credit report is erroneous. After reading your letter and verifying that it is correct, Double Dollar removes the incorrect information from your credit report.
18. The scientists studying global warming want to accurately predict what the average temperature of the earth's surface will be 100 years from now. To do this, they are using computer simulations. These computer simulations are similar to those used to make the weather forecasts given each night on news programs, except that the predictions concern the weather 100 years from now, rather than several days from now. Unfortunately, too little time has passed to allow the predictions of these computer simulations to be tested.
19. In attempting to lower the incidence of sexually-transmitted diseases on campus, the Student Health Service begins issuing condoms during class hours in all major buildings. Over the following year, the incidence of sexually-transmitted diseases increases in the student body, indicating that the new policy is unsuccessful. However, the practice of issuing condoms is not changed.
20. You are hired as a management consultant to increase the profitability of Hard Steel, Inc., a steel manufacturing company. The major raw materials the company uses in making steel are scrap iron, coal and iron ore. Each load of scrap iron contains slightly different amounts of trace metals (a trace metal is some metal other than iron). Similarly, each load of coal is slightly different, as is each load of iron ore. Moreover, each batch of steel that the company makes contains different proportions of scrap iron, coal and iron ore, and uses raw materials from different loads. Simple engineering principles strongly suggest that the company has widely varying profits and losses on different batches of steel, and that these differences in profitability depend on exactly what mix of ingredients was used in each batch. However, you soon discover that the company keeps no written records of the exact proportions of raw ingredients that went into each batch, nor of which loads these ingredients came from, although the foremen on the shop floor do have a mental image of what proportion and type of ingredients should be used. Additionally, there are no written records of the profits and losses from particular batches. Consequently, the company cannot increase profitability by changing the proportion and kinds of scrap iron, coal and iron ore used in future batches of steel.
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